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GULF DISTURBANCE HAS AN 80 PERCENT DEVELOPMENT CHANCE
Written by KAYLA WILLIAMS · Filed October 6, 2026

A disturbance in the southwestern Gulf is expected to develop into a tropical depression during the middle of the week, according to Monday evening’s outlook.
Forecasters gave the system, identified as AL92, a 70 percent chance of formation within 48 hours and an 80 percent chance within 7 days.
It was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions were described as only marginally favorable, but gradual development had become more likely.
The system is expected to drift toward the east and northeast before turning northward. Officials said it was too early to determine specific impacts along the northern Gulf Coast.
West Texans planning coastal travel can follow later updates. The percentages describe the chance of a tropical system forming, rather than a particular city being struck.
Specific coastal impacts remain unresolved in this outlook.
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