IS TEXAS REALLY TURNING BLUE? NEW POLL SHOWS DEMOCRATS LEADING MAJOR STATEWIDE RACES

IS TEXAS REALLY TURNING BLUE? NEW POLL SHOWS DEMOCRATS LEADING MAJOR STATEWIDE RACES

AUSTIN, Texas — A new statewide poll is raising fresh questions about whether Texas could be moving from a reliably Republican state toward becoming a true political battleground.

The ReconMR and Siena University poll released Thursday shows Democratic gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa leading Republican Gov. Greg Abbott 49% to 45%. It marks the first time a nonpartisan poll has shown Hinojosa ahead of the three term governor.

The same survey shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 49% to 43% in the race for the U.S. Senate. Talarico’s advantage increased from 4 points in July to 6 points in September. ReconMR and Siena University⁠

The poll suggests independent voters are playing a major role in the movement. Hinojosa led Abbott among independents 65% to 27%, while Talarico led Paxton with the same group 64% to 24%.

Affordability also appears to be helping Hinojosa. Voters said she would do a better job lowering prices and managing Texas’ water supply. Abbott continued to lead on border security and public safety.

However, the results do not mean Texas has officially turned blue.

The ReconMR and Siena survey questioned 614 likely voters and carries a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points. That means Hinojosa’s 4 point advantage remains within the poll’s margin of error.

Another statewide poll released the same day produced a different result. Emerson College found Abbott leading Hinojosa 49% to 46%, while Talarico held a narrow 47% to 46% advantage over Paxton. That survey included 1,000 likely voters and had a 3 point credibility interval. Emerson College Polling⁠

A September N+ Univision and YouGov poll also found Abbott and Hinojosa tied at 47%, while Talarico led Paxton 48% to 43%. That poll showed Democrats performing especially well among Hispanic voters, a group Republicans made significant gains with during the 2024 election. TelevisaUnivision⁠

The bigger picture is not necessarily that Texas has become a Democratic state. The polling shows that its major statewide races are competitive and that Republican candidates can no longer assume an easy victory.

Texas voters will make the final decision in November. Until then, the state may not be blue, but it is looking considerably more purple than Republicans have been accustomed to.